Recount of "Good Judgement Project" conducted in 2011-2015 for IARPA (US' intelligence research agency), where a few thousand volunteers posed hundreds of forecasts about geopolitical and economic events. Scientists behind the project discovered a group of exceptionally good forecasters, met them in person, followed their habits, and assembled small teams who achieved even better results. The book surveys not only the process of efficient forecasting, but also places significant emphasis on forecast evaluation, asking correct questions, translating it to business and teamwork, as well as debates about whether superforecasters are really superior.

ISBN: 9780804136693